STORM FORECAST
VALID Tue 14 Feb 06:00 - Wed 15 Feb 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 13 Feb 21:43 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Tuesday at 06 UTC... a deeply amplified, meridionally oriented longwave trough stretches from western Russia to the western Black Sea, where 500 hPa temperatures below -40 C are forecast. This should create sufficient instability to result in the development of a few convective storms over the area, that may be thundery. Additional storms are forecast over the western Aegean Sea. Upstream... a ridge stretching initially from southern Scandinavia to the Iberia peninsula is followed by a trough and accompanying thermal trough initially over Ireland.

DISCUSSION

...British Isles...
As the aforementioned trough moves eastward over the British Isles during the day, the development of a few 100s of J/kg CAPE are expected in its vicinity. Solar heating will play a major role in this as well, primarily across over southern England and Wales. Models suggest that the deepest instability will be present there and additionally from northern Scotland northward over the Atlantic. The development of thunderstorms in those areas seems very likely.

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